| National Avg Benchmarks | Fuel Surcharge | +/- | Flatbed LTR Benchmarks | % Dif | |||||
| Current | 5.401 | WoW Change | 0.00 | Current | 81.57 | ||||
| WoW Change | 0.026 | ▲ | 30-Day Change | 0.32 | WoW Change | 1.55 | 2% | ||
| 30-Day Change | 1.592 | ▲ | 90-Day Change | 0.38 | 30-Day Change | 24.65 | 43% | ||
| 90-Day Change | 1.901 | ▲ | Y/Y Change | 0.37 | 90-Day Change | 55.17 | 209% | ||
Markets respond to disruption based on the balance of supply and demand. In this case, a sudden fuel surge hit an already depleted carrier base. Because this shift was immediate rather than a steady climb, the industry saw an abrupt correction that essentially reset rates overnight. This speed created a significant gap between previously quoted prices and the actual cost to move a truck today, adding a layer of perceived demand that continues to compound.
Not all lanes are affected equally. In markets where capacity was already tight, the fuel spike forced an immediate and sharp increase in overall rates. In contrast, softer lanes with more available equipment are seeing more measured increases primarily driven by the fuel surcharge. Regardless of the specific lane, the overarching trend is a reset of pricing to align with current market realities.
While trucking rates reacted immediately, the impact on rail freight is still yet to be realized due to how railroads calculate fuel surcharges. Most railroads use a two-month look-back on the national average to set current rates. Because of this lag, the market has not yet felt the full effects of the March spike, which will materialize in May. Expectations are for an increase of approximately $.30 per mile.
Short Term Outlook:
- Rate Adjustments: Expect consistent upward movement as vendors and carries align their pricing with the new fuel and capacity baseline
- Price Discovery: Markets will remain fluid as carriers test new rate floors to offset the immediate spike in operating overhead
- Compressed Quote Windows: To manage volatility, rate quotes will have significantly shorter expiration periods
- Increased Tender Rejections: Shippers may see higher rejection rates on older, contracted “static” rates as carriers pivot towards loads that reflect current market reality
- Rail Fuel Surcharge Update: Anticipate a secondary cost wave in May as the two-month rail fuel lag catches up to the March surge
Establishing a firm market rate remains a challenge while so many variables are in play. However, as the initial shock of the fuel surge subsides and carriers adjust their operating models, we expect this "price discovery" phase to level off. Once the current volatility is removed from the equation, the market will begin to stabilize at a more predictable baseline. We will continue to monitor these shifts in real-time to provide the most accurate guidance as this new equilibrium is reached.
